I thought this video fit nicely with Tana's presentation on Tuesday about new media.
Epic 2014 (original)
Click here to launch the original movie
Click here to launch the movie full screen
Epic 2015 (new updated version)
Click here to launch the new movie
Click here to launch the movie full screen
Epic 2014 is the original flash online movie made by Robin Sloan for the Museum of Media History. Set in 2014 it charts the history of the Internet, the evolving mediascape and the way news and newspapers were affected by the growth in online news. It coined the word "Googlezon" from a future merger of Google and Amazon to form the Google grid, and speaks of news wars with the Times becoming a print only paper for the elite culminating in EPIC Evolving Personalised Information Construct. As a flash animation, this film is extraordinary, not just for it's use of technology but for it's fantastic perception looking forward. Epic 2015 is a new updated vision of the future set in 2015.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Thursday, April 9, 2009
What Can Twitter Do for You?
April 7, 2009
-By Edward Boches
Whenever I start a conversation about Twitter with someone who doesn't use it -- or who tried it, but never got beyond the inane act of twittering some insignificant detail of his daily life -- I get eye rolls, throat clearing and other signals that suggest I should change the subject.
But if I start a conversation about Twitter with someone who has taken the time to use it, I get the exact opposite response: an instant conversation about fresh ideas, emerging thought leaders, newly revealed content and trends in social media that comes at me faster than an overcrowded chat room.
I am in the latter camp. For me, Twitter is not another Facebook. It's not about connecting with lost friends or letting your virtual posse know what you're up to. It's not simply a source of breaking news à la US Airways Flight 1549. And despite the fact that it blows Google away as a real-time search engine, even that barely begins to describe Twitter's true potential.
Instead, I've found far greater benefits to incorporating Twitter into my life and onto my desktop. Here's what Twitter's given me:
1. Instant access to thought leaders in social media, digital trends, technology and marketing in the new age of community. They're all here: the staff of Wired, the lead strategists at the next generation of agencies, the pioneers of social media itself. Not just the expected names like @crowdsourcing (Jeff Howe) or @johnabyrne (BusinessWeek's digitally proactive editor) or @henryjenkins (MIT's director of comparative media studies) or @jaffejuice (Crayon's Joe) but a new generation of even younger social media enthusiasts. Most of them are remarkably generous with their knowledge, willing to answer questions, share ideas, even give away their content.
2. An opportunity to experience crowd sourcing in action. Conduct a brainstorming session in your own agency and you're pretty much limited to the usual suspects. But on Twitter there are thousands of people willing to help out. And because no one pays attention to seniority or title, new voices are more willing to express an opinion that more often than not is both fresh and provocative. I'm constantly surprised where the quote or thought or insight or example I'm looking for comes from. But it's always to be found.
3. A new way to connect with Millennials. We live in a society that does its very best to isolate generations. But because a Twitter relationship centers around content, information and ideas, it erases differences in age. I'm now connected with college students in New York, Austin, Boston, Chicago, Atlanta and Miami. Many of their blogs are far more telling than another research report from Simmons or Forrester. And all of them are willing to make me smarter about how marketing has to change if it's to connect with a generation defined by community, collaboration and responsibility.
4. The first hand experience needed to become an authority. As has been noted by Adweek, clients are critical of most agencies' lack of experience in social media, specifically calling them out for not using the space themselves. For me, hanging out on Twitter inspired ideas like Trash Talk from Section Twitter and RedCarpet09, two virtual gatherings created around the Super Bowl and the Academy Awards. They not only became successful events in and of themselves -- generating visibility for Mullen and attaining status as hot topics on Twitter -- they demonstrated to clients how one agency in particular actually gets it.
5. A better understanding of how to weave together all things social. If nothing else, Twitter gives you a clear sense of everything a brand can and should do with social media: enable connections and ultimately create a community that let's you listen, engage, inspire, build and mobilize. Maybe you can't achieve social Nirvana with Twitter exclusively -- you still need a broader brand network, relevant content and genuine utility -- but Twitter makes it easier to create connections and to identify the content and utility that can help make sure those connections last.
Yes, there are challenges. Co-founder Ev Williams admits that Twitter needs to come with a set of directions; the functionality remains less than obvious. It also takes time to determine a personal strategy. Are you building your individual brand? Seeking new contacts? Looking to master a category? Or simply practicing what we all have to preach? To make things more complicated, there are hundreds upon hundreds of Twitter apps to consider, thanks to the open API. Figuring out which ones matter is in and of itself a chore.
Still, it's worth the effort. If you haven't joined yet, you're missing out. If you gave up the first time around, give it another go. And if you want help making it easier, contact me. I'm @edwardboches or http://twitter.com/edwardboches. I'll gladly share everything I've learned about the platform, and willingly introduce you to a few hundred people who can teach you everything I don't know.
Edward Boches is chief creative officer at Mullen. He can be reached at edward.boches@mullen.com or @edwardboches on Twitter.
-By Edward Boches
Whenever I start a conversation about Twitter with someone who doesn't use it -- or who tried it, but never got beyond the inane act of twittering some insignificant detail of his daily life -- I get eye rolls, throat clearing and other signals that suggest I should change the subject.
But if I start a conversation about Twitter with someone who has taken the time to use it, I get the exact opposite response: an instant conversation about fresh ideas, emerging thought leaders, newly revealed content and trends in social media that comes at me faster than an overcrowded chat room.
I am in the latter camp. For me, Twitter is not another Facebook. It's not about connecting with lost friends or letting your virtual posse know what you're up to. It's not simply a source of breaking news à la US Airways Flight 1549. And despite the fact that it blows Google away as a real-time search engine, even that barely begins to describe Twitter's true potential.
Instead, I've found far greater benefits to incorporating Twitter into my life and onto my desktop. Here's what Twitter's given me:
1. Instant access to thought leaders in social media, digital trends, technology and marketing in the new age of community. They're all here: the staff of Wired, the lead strategists at the next generation of agencies, the pioneers of social media itself. Not just the expected names like @crowdsourcing (Jeff Howe) or @johnabyrne (BusinessWeek's digitally proactive editor) or @henryjenkins (MIT's director of comparative media studies) or @jaffejuice (Crayon's Joe) but a new generation of even younger social media enthusiasts. Most of them are remarkably generous with their knowledge, willing to answer questions, share ideas, even give away their content.
2. An opportunity to experience crowd sourcing in action. Conduct a brainstorming session in your own agency and you're pretty much limited to the usual suspects. But on Twitter there are thousands of people willing to help out. And because no one pays attention to seniority or title, new voices are more willing to express an opinion that more often than not is both fresh and provocative. I'm constantly surprised where the quote or thought or insight or example I'm looking for comes from. But it's always to be found.
3. A new way to connect with Millennials. We live in a society that does its very best to isolate generations. But because a Twitter relationship centers around content, information and ideas, it erases differences in age. I'm now connected with college students in New York, Austin, Boston, Chicago, Atlanta and Miami. Many of their blogs are far more telling than another research report from Simmons or Forrester. And all of them are willing to make me smarter about how marketing has to change if it's to connect with a generation defined by community, collaboration and responsibility.
4. The first hand experience needed to become an authority. As has been noted by Adweek, clients are critical of most agencies' lack of experience in social media, specifically calling them out for not using the space themselves. For me, hanging out on Twitter inspired ideas like Trash Talk from Section Twitter and RedCarpet09, two virtual gatherings created around the Super Bowl and the Academy Awards. They not only became successful events in and of themselves -- generating visibility for Mullen and attaining status as hot topics on Twitter -- they demonstrated to clients how one agency in particular actually gets it.
5. A better understanding of how to weave together all things social. If nothing else, Twitter gives you a clear sense of everything a brand can and should do with social media: enable connections and ultimately create a community that let's you listen, engage, inspire, build and mobilize. Maybe you can't achieve social Nirvana with Twitter exclusively -- you still need a broader brand network, relevant content and genuine utility -- but Twitter makes it easier to create connections and to identify the content and utility that can help make sure those connections last.
Yes, there are challenges. Co-founder Ev Williams admits that Twitter needs to come with a set of directions; the functionality remains less than obvious. It also takes time to determine a personal strategy. Are you building your individual brand? Seeking new contacts? Looking to master a category? Or simply practicing what we all have to preach? To make things more complicated, there are hundreds upon hundreds of Twitter apps to consider, thanks to the open API. Figuring out which ones matter is in and of itself a chore.
Still, it's worth the effort. If you haven't joined yet, you're missing out. If you gave up the first time around, give it another go. And if you want help making it easier, contact me. I'm @edwardboches or http://twitter.com/edwardboches. I'll gladly share everything I've learned about the platform, and willingly introduce you to a few hundred people who can teach you everything I don't know.
Edward Boches is chief creative officer at Mullen. He can be reached at edward.boches@mullen.com or @edwardboches on Twitter.
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Group M Revises Media-Spending Forecast Downward
Group M Revises Media-Spending Forecast Downward: For '09, Predicts Much Bigger Pullback of 4.3% in U.S.
by Michael Bush Published: March 31, 2009
NEW YORK (AdAge.com) -- WPP's Group M announced today that it has revised its measured-media-spending forecast for 2009, and the news isn't good. The media unit predicts that global measured media spending will drop 4.4% to $425 billion, a much bigger drop than the 0.2% it predicted back in December.
Adam Smith The group said it expects a near identical drop of 4.3% to $155 billion in measured media spending in the U.S., rather than the 3% it predicted in December. Looking forward, Group M said the industry could see a drop of 6.8% in the U.S. in 2010.
London-based Adam Smith, futures director at Group M, said in a statement: "The 2008/2009 period is now a more serious advertising recession, in scale, duration and relative to the global economy, than the extraordinary 5.1% real-terms post-dot-com global advertising correction of 2001."
Rino Scanzoni, Group M's chief investment officer, said in a statement that the further and more severe drop projected for the U.S. in 2010 was a direct result of marketing budgets that were "devised in the throes of the current recession." He also said the stimulus package put forward by the government will not have an immediate positive impact on ad spending "because it does little to drive consumer spending in the face of high unemployment, a weak housing sector and a resurgence of commodity inflation in the short run."
Overseas, Western Europe is looking at a 6.7% drop in ad spending in 2009, according to Group M, a significant change from the 1.7% it offered up in December. The group said Germany is proving to be the most resilient market in the region.
China, one of the few areas where growth is expected, also took a hit in Group M's revision. Its 2009 forecast for spending in China dropped to 3.2% growth from the 13% it forecasted in December. Group M attributed the decline to "consumer retrenchment and a credit crunch in retail distribution, which government stimulus might alleviate."
by Michael Bush Published: March 31, 2009
NEW YORK (AdAge.com) -- WPP's Group M announced today that it has revised its measured-media-spending forecast for 2009, and the news isn't good. The media unit predicts that global measured media spending will drop 4.4% to $425 billion, a much bigger drop than the 0.2% it predicted back in December.
Adam Smith The group said it expects a near identical drop of 4.3% to $155 billion in measured media spending in the U.S., rather than the 3% it predicted in December. Looking forward, Group M said the industry could see a drop of 6.8% in the U.S. in 2010.
London-based Adam Smith, futures director at Group M, said in a statement: "The 2008/2009 period is now a more serious advertising recession, in scale, duration and relative to the global economy, than the extraordinary 5.1% real-terms post-dot-com global advertising correction of 2001."
Rino Scanzoni, Group M's chief investment officer, said in a statement that the further and more severe drop projected for the U.S. in 2010 was a direct result of marketing budgets that were "devised in the throes of the current recession." He also said the stimulus package put forward by the government will not have an immediate positive impact on ad spending "because it does little to drive consumer spending in the face of high unemployment, a weak housing sector and a resurgence of commodity inflation in the short run."
Overseas, Western Europe is looking at a 6.7% drop in ad spending in 2009, according to Group M, a significant change from the 1.7% it offered up in December. The group said Germany is proving to be the most resilient market in the region.
China, one of the few areas where growth is expected, also took a hit in Group M's revision. Its 2009 forecast for spending in China dropped to 3.2% growth from the 13% it forecasted in December. Group M attributed the decline to "consumer retrenchment and a credit crunch in retail distribution, which government stimulus might alleviate."
Nielson Cuts 1,600 Jobs
Nielsen Cuts 1,600 Jobs: Market Research Giant Cites Continued Integration of Its Operations for Reduction
By Jack Neff Published: March 30, 2009
NEW YORK (AdAge.com) -- Market research powerhouse Nielsen Co. has taken a restructuring charge to cover a headcount reduction of 1,600 in 2009, or less than 5% of its work force, company officials disclosed in a conference call with investors and analysts last week.
Chief Financial Officer Brian West declined on the call March 27 to detail the timing or precise areas of the reductions, which are in addition to the 4,100 announced shortly after the company, formerly known as VNU, was taken private in 2006.
But Mr. West indicated the moves are part of the continuing integration of the company's operations and efforts to grow earnings ahead of revenue, as the company did last year and in the fourth quarter despite a sharp slowdown in the second half.
A Nielsen spokesman said in an e-mail that the majority of notifications regarding the new round of job cuts have already been made, starting last year, and that the cuts are being made globally.
Nielsen, which operates Nielsen Media Research, the Nielsen retail-tracking and consumer-panel business, Nielsen Online and Nielsen Business Media, with titles including Adweek, booked the charge in the fourth quarter, Mr. West said.
"I will tell you that a charge of that magnitude, in this kind of environment, we're going to make sure that's it's reasonable payback, one of which we'll enjoy the benefits of through the course of '09," he said of the upfront accounting charge to pay for the headcount reduction.
He noted that Nielsen increased its bottom line 12.5% in 2008 on 4.5% revenue growth to $5 billion (excluding currency effects), adding that such numbers are possible "through the solid operating leverage that we saw. ... We're very focused on integration productivity. We've shown an ability to deliver it, and as we head into '09 we need it now more than ever."
While Nielsen fared better than many in marketing on both the top and bottom lines last year, neither it nor the rest of the research industry has been immune to the recession. Arbitron last week announced it will lay off more than 100 employees, or 10% of its work force.
Nielsen's revenue rose 1% in the fourth quarter, a sharp deceleration from the 7% growth for the first half.
Hardest hit by the recession was Nielsen Business Media, with revenue down 23% in the fourth quarter and 11% on the year. Nielsen's expositions business also was down 10% in the fourth quarter.
Nielsen Media Research fared far better, with revenue up 10% on the year and 11% in the fourth quarter, with about four points of growth coming from acquisitions. But Mr. West added: "As we head into '09, it's not going to stay that high."
The consumer business, which includes scanner and panel data for package-goods clients, came in flat in the fourth quarter despite two account wins in the second half and an agreement by Nielsen's biggest customer, Procter & Gamble Co., to re-up its contract for five more years.
A bright spot in that business, however, remained media and pricing analytics as marketers upped budgets to gauge the effects of recession. Nielsen's analytics revenues were up 22% for the year, though they slowed to 10% growth in the fourth quarter.
Nielsen Online was another bright spot, albeit with a similar trajectory -- up 16% on the year but only 5% in the fourth quarter.
By Jack Neff Published: March 30, 2009
NEW YORK (AdAge.com) -- Market research powerhouse Nielsen Co. has taken a restructuring charge to cover a headcount reduction of 1,600 in 2009, or less than 5% of its work force, company officials disclosed in a conference call with investors and analysts last week.
Chief Financial Officer Brian West declined on the call March 27 to detail the timing or precise areas of the reductions, which are in addition to the 4,100 announced shortly after the company, formerly known as VNU, was taken private in 2006.
But Mr. West indicated the moves are part of the continuing integration of the company's operations and efforts to grow earnings ahead of revenue, as the company did last year and in the fourth quarter despite a sharp slowdown in the second half.
A Nielsen spokesman said in an e-mail that the majority of notifications regarding the new round of job cuts have already been made, starting last year, and that the cuts are being made globally.
Nielsen, which operates Nielsen Media Research, the Nielsen retail-tracking and consumer-panel business, Nielsen Online and Nielsen Business Media, with titles including Adweek, booked the charge in the fourth quarter, Mr. West said.
"I will tell you that a charge of that magnitude, in this kind of environment, we're going to make sure that's it's reasonable payback, one of which we'll enjoy the benefits of through the course of '09," he said of the upfront accounting charge to pay for the headcount reduction.
He noted that Nielsen increased its bottom line 12.5% in 2008 on 4.5% revenue growth to $5 billion (excluding currency effects), adding that such numbers are possible "through the solid operating leverage that we saw. ... We're very focused on integration productivity. We've shown an ability to deliver it, and as we head into '09 we need it now more than ever."
While Nielsen fared better than many in marketing on both the top and bottom lines last year, neither it nor the rest of the research industry has been immune to the recession. Arbitron last week announced it will lay off more than 100 employees, or 10% of its work force.
Nielsen's revenue rose 1% in the fourth quarter, a sharp deceleration from the 7% growth for the first half.
Hardest hit by the recession was Nielsen Business Media, with revenue down 23% in the fourth quarter and 11% on the year. Nielsen's expositions business also was down 10% in the fourth quarter.
Nielsen Media Research fared far better, with revenue up 10% on the year and 11% in the fourth quarter, with about four points of growth coming from acquisitions. But Mr. West added: "As we head into '09, it's not going to stay that high."
The consumer business, which includes scanner and panel data for package-goods clients, came in flat in the fourth quarter despite two account wins in the second half and an agreement by Nielsen's biggest customer, Procter & Gamble Co., to re-up its contract for five more years.
A bright spot in that business, however, remained media and pricing analytics as marketers upped budgets to gauge the effects of recession. Nielsen's analytics revenues were up 22% for the year, though they slowed to 10% growth in the fourth quarter.
Nielsen Online was another bright spot, albeit with a similar trajectory -- up 16% on the year but only 5% in the fourth quarter.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
The coming explosion in mobile media Ad spending is forecast to soar to $3.1 billion by 2013
By Diego Vasquez Feb 26, 2009
The iPhone isn’t just boosting Apple’s bottom line. By ushering in the era of the smart phone, cells that are able to perform multiple tasks like surfing the web, taking and sending pictures, watching movies and listening to music, the iPhone and other devices like it may finally help deliver on the long-held promise of mobile advertising. It’s one of the few areas of media poised for big growth over the next few years, according to a report released this week by the Kelsey Group, a research and analysis firm that's part of BIA Advisory Services. The report predicts that U.S. mobile advertising revenues will balloon to $3.1 billion by 2013 from $160 million last year, with local search generating roughly one-third of the total revenue. Advertisers will be attracted by the huge jump in mobile data consumption, driven by the adoption of smart phones with those multitasking abilities. Michael Boland, senior analyst at the Kelsey Group, talks to Media Life about why local search is hot, how small businesses will help drive growth, and why mobile is rising while other sectors are falling.
What did you find most interesting or most surprising about this forecast?
I guess one top line data point is that the growth of the mobile web will be tied to increased smart phone penetration. Smart phones outpaced the rest of the mobile device market in the fourth quarter and will continue to do so.
This has correlated to more data consumption overall and the growth of the mobile web, which currently stands at about 54 million users, or about 25 percent of mobile users in the U.S. This will drive the mobile ad revenues we project, and the fastest-growing portions will be those that are tied to the capabilities of these devices.
Search, for example, will grow at a faster rate than SMS (short message service, or text messaging)-based mobile advertising, which is the current leader. Local search will grow at an even faster rate due to the ties between local search and the mobile use case. Locally targeted ads will also demand higher premiums, meaning that local search growth will outpace overall search growth in both query volume and revenue.
What's the most important thing media buyers and planners can take from it?
In quantitative terms, the growth of the mobile web holds promising opportunities to reach tens of millions of users in a targeted way over the next five years.
In more qualitative terms, mobile users are much more engaged than online users. This has been proven out with higher click-through rates for all forms of mobile advertising when compared to online equivalents.
Lastly, the location awareness and portability of the mobile device opens up lots of opportunity for local targeting, which likewise sees higher engagement due to greater relevance.
Just about every other segment of media is forecasting big ad spending declines in the coming year or two. Why is mobile different?
Mobile is still seen as experimental by lots of advertisers, so we won’t see large volume increases in mobile marketing until 2010 or 2011. But it is still gaining some advertiser interest in the face of recessionary ad budget cuts because it is measurable.
Ad spending is not just decreasing in the current economic environment, it is shifting to ad formats that are more efficient and measurable. This is why the ad formats with the largest projected growth for the next five years are search and mobile.
What makes mobile search such a hot category?
Right now, the larger opportunity is in SMS marketing because the primary inputs for the majority of mobile users are voice and text. However as smart phone penetration continues to grow and this correlates to the growth of the mobile web and mobile data consumption, search will gain share.
Among all of the ad formats in our survey, search is the fastest growing with triple digit compound annual growth rates. If you drill down to the local portion of search, it will grow at an even faster rate, both in query volume and in ad revenues.
The latter results from a higher premium being placed on advertising that is locally targeted and thus more actionable.
Why are you forecasting such strong growth for local mobile marketing and how long will that continue?
This local portion of the forecast grows at a faster rate because of the inherent qualities of the mobile form factor. The location awareness and portability of mobile devices make them a natural fit for local search.
The volume of online searches that have local intent are about 20 percent. In mobile, this local intent will be higher. Conversely, all the other things we do online like search for images or video, research for term papers, social networking, etc., will represent a smaller share of mobile search activity – due again to the form factor.
How important will small business advertising be to the growth of the mobile ad market?
Right now it’s a very small share because of the lack of tools available for small and medium sized business (SMBs) to advertise with mobile. It’s also seen as experimental by many SMBs, which doesn’t bode well in times of economic uncertainty.
But like the web six or seven years ago, the barriers will be lowered for SMBs to engage mobile marketing. This will happen through tools that are integrated with Google’s Adwords to run mobile search campaigns as an adjunct to online search campaigns. Google has already started to do this.
Another factor is that local mobile marketing is currently confined by a lack of inventory. In other words the relatively small amount of mobile search activity is spread thin when you divide it into lots of specific search terms and locations for specific locally oriented businesses (i.e. hardware store, Omaha).
There are only so many searches happening for these types of queries, which limits the available inventory against which to apply locally targeted advertising. This is worse in the U.S. compared with places like Europe, where you have a greater portion of the population living in urban areas. Here we’re more spread out, which increases this effect.
This will be alleviated over time as mobile web usage and search volume scales up. Right now, we’re not quite there though.
What factors will drive mobile web growth over the next four years?
The iPhone was the catalyst for the growth of the mobile web, and it will continue based on the availability of devices inspired by the iPhone, which have full web browsers. The market will flood with such devices that will compete on price.
Carriers will also see the hunger for mobile web use and will continue to subsidize the front-end costs of these devices in order to drive longer-term data contracts. This is already being seen with smart phone sales outpacing the rest of the market.
Beyond the hardware will be great mobile apps that will drive the utility and appeal for these devices. Apple’s opening up the market to third-party innovation will be huge and will compare to the level of open innovation that we see on the web. There is finally a system that incentivizes this innovation and gives it a hospitable environment.
This is contrasted with the carrier control that previously stifled this innovation from reaching the market and caused the subpar mobile products that kept the mobile web stuck in early-adopter phases for years. That’s all starting to change -- Apple came first and many others are following, including application marketplaces from Microsoft, Nokia, Palm and RIM.
The iPhone isn’t just boosting Apple’s bottom line. By ushering in the era of the smart phone, cells that are able to perform multiple tasks like surfing the web, taking and sending pictures, watching movies and listening to music, the iPhone and other devices like it may finally help deliver on the long-held promise of mobile advertising. It’s one of the few areas of media poised for big growth over the next few years, according to a report released this week by the Kelsey Group, a research and analysis firm that's part of BIA Advisory Services. The report predicts that U.S. mobile advertising revenues will balloon to $3.1 billion by 2013 from $160 million last year, with local search generating roughly one-third of the total revenue. Advertisers will be attracted by the huge jump in mobile data consumption, driven by the adoption of smart phones with those multitasking abilities. Michael Boland, senior analyst at the Kelsey Group, talks to Media Life about why local search is hot, how small businesses will help drive growth, and why mobile is rising while other sectors are falling.
What did you find most interesting or most surprising about this forecast?
I guess one top line data point is that the growth of the mobile web will be tied to increased smart phone penetration. Smart phones outpaced the rest of the mobile device market in the fourth quarter and will continue to do so.
This has correlated to more data consumption overall and the growth of the mobile web, which currently stands at about 54 million users, or about 25 percent of mobile users in the U.S. This will drive the mobile ad revenues we project, and the fastest-growing portions will be those that are tied to the capabilities of these devices.
Search, for example, will grow at a faster rate than SMS (short message service, or text messaging)-based mobile advertising, which is the current leader. Local search will grow at an even faster rate due to the ties between local search and the mobile use case. Locally targeted ads will also demand higher premiums, meaning that local search growth will outpace overall search growth in both query volume and revenue.
What's the most important thing media buyers and planners can take from it?
In quantitative terms, the growth of the mobile web holds promising opportunities to reach tens of millions of users in a targeted way over the next five years.
In more qualitative terms, mobile users are much more engaged than online users. This has been proven out with higher click-through rates for all forms of mobile advertising when compared to online equivalents.
Lastly, the location awareness and portability of the mobile device opens up lots of opportunity for local targeting, which likewise sees higher engagement due to greater relevance.
Just about every other segment of media is forecasting big ad spending declines in the coming year or two. Why is mobile different?
Mobile is still seen as experimental by lots of advertisers, so we won’t see large volume increases in mobile marketing until 2010 or 2011. But it is still gaining some advertiser interest in the face of recessionary ad budget cuts because it is measurable.
Ad spending is not just decreasing in the current economic environment, it is shifting to ad formats that are more efficient and measurable. This is why the ad formats with the largest projected growth for the next five years are search and mobile.
What makes mobile search such a hot category?
Right now, the larger opportunity is in SMS marketing because the primary inputs for the majority of mobile users are voice and text. However as smart phone penetration continues to grow and this correlates to the growth of the mobile web and mobile data consumption, search will gain share.
Among all of the ad formats in our survey, search is the fastest growing with triple digit compound annual growth rates. If you drill down to the local portion of search, it will grow at an even faster rate, both in query volume and in ad revenues.
The latter results from a higher premium being placed on advertising that is locally targeted and thus more actionable.
Why are you forecasting such strong growth for local mobile marketing and how long will that continue?
This local portion of the forecast grows at a faster rate because of the inherent qualities of the mobile form factor. The location awareness and portability of mobile devices make them a natural fit for local search.
The volume of online searches that have local intent are about 20 percent. In mobile, this local intent will be higher. Conversely, all the other things we do online like search for images or video, research for term papers, social networking, etc., will represent a smaller share of mobile search activity – due again to the form factor.
How important will small business advertising be to the growth of the mobile ad market?
Right now it’s a very small share because of the lack of tools available for small and medium sized business (SMBs) to advertise with mobile. It’s also seen as experimental by many SMBs, which doesn’t bode well in times of economic uncertainty.
But like the web six or seven years ago, the barriers will be lowered for SMBs to engage mobile marketing. This will happen through tools that are integrated with Google’s Adwords to run mobile search campaigns as an adjunct to online search campaigns. Google has already started to do this.
Another factor is that local mobile marketing is currently confined by a lack of inventory. In other words the relatively small amount of mobile search activity is spread thin when you divide it into lots of specific search terms and locations for specific locally oriented businesses (i.e. hardware store, Omaha).
There are only so many searches happening for these types of queries, which limits the available inventory against which to apply locally targeted advertising. This is worse in the U.S. compared with places like Europe, where you have a greater portion of the population living in urban areas. Here we’re more spread out, which increases this effect.
This will be alleviated over time as mobile web usage and search volume scales up. Right now, we’re not quite there though.
What factors will drive mobile web growth over the next four years?
The iPhone was the catalyst for the growth of the mobile web, and it will continue based on the availability of devices inspired by the iPhone, which have full web browsers. The market will flood with such devices that will compete on price.
Carriers will also see the hunger for mobile web use and will continue to subsidize the front-end costs of these devices in order to drive longer-term data contracts. This is already being seen with smart phone sales outpacing the rest of the market.
Beyond the hardware will be great mobile apps that will drive the utility and appeal for these devices. Apple’s opening up the market to third-party innovation will be huge and will compare to the level of open innovation that we see on the web. There is finally a system that incentivizes this innovation and gives it a hospitable environment.
This is contrasted with the carrier control that previously stifled this innovation from reaching the market and caused the subpar mobile products that kept the mobile web stuck in early-adopter phases for years. That’s all starting to change -- Apple came first and many others are following, including application marketplaces from Microsoft, Nokia, Palm and RIM.
Starbucks vs. McDonalds
Mickey D's or Starbucks? What your coffee choice says about you
BY MICAH MERTES / Lincoln Journal Star
Tuesday, Feb 24, 2009 - 12:17:34 am CST
Turns out, where you get your food and drink says a lot more about you than you might think.For example: If you stopped by Starbucks this morning, you’re likely an upper-middle-class liberal with a college degree.In an absurdly thorough report, Pew Research Organization surveyed more than 2,000 people, asking them the question: “Would you prefer to live in a place with more McDonald’s or more Starbucks?”
A Pew Research Organization study shows that if you prefer Starbucks to McDonald's' coffee, you probably are more liberal, make more than $75,000 a year, have a college degree and live in the Western U.S.
A Pew Research Organization study shows that if you prefer Starbucks to McDonald's' coffee, you probably are more liberal, make more than $75,000 a year, have a college degree and live in the Western U.S.
The home of Ronald won, with people preferring McDonald’s 43 percent to 35 percent (the remainder had no preference).Even more interesting, though, is how Pew broke up their sample by ideologies and demographics. Bring on the false dichotomies!Political ideology: Self-described liberals prefer Starbucks 46 to 33 percent, while conservatives prefer McDonald’s 50 to 28 percent. Moderates fell in the middle.Gender: Men prefer McDonald’s 16 percent more than Starbucks. Women like both equally.Income: People with annual incomes of $75,000 and above are likely to choose Starbucks, while those with incomes below $30,000 go with the Golden Arches.Education: People with college degrees prefer Starbucks 47 to 32 percent. Those with a high school degree or less prefer McDonald’s 50 to 26 percent.Region: Westerners prefer Starbucks by a wide margin. But folks in the East, the South and the Midwest all like McDonald’s more.Religion: Protestants and Catholics prefer McDonald’s. The religiously unaffiliated are predominantly Starbucks patrons.
BY MICAH MERTES / Lincoln Journal Star
Tuesday, Feb 24, 2009 - 12:17:34 am CST
Turns out, where you get your food and drink says a lot more about you than you might think.For example: If you stopped by Starbucks this morning, you’re likely an upper-middle-class liberal with a college degree.In an absurdly thorough report, Pew Research Organization surveyed more than 2,000 people, asking them the question: “Would you prefer to live in a place with more McDonald’s or more Starbucks?”
A Pew Research Organization study shows that if you prefer Starbucks to McDonald's' coffee, you probably are more liberal, make more than $75,000 a year, have a college degree and live in the Western U.S.
A Pew Research Organization study shows that if you prefer Starbucks to McDonald's' coffee, you probably are more liberal, make more than $75,000 a year, have a college degree and live in the Western U.S.
The home of Ronald won, with people preferring McDonald’s 43 percent to 35 percent (the remainder had no preference).Even more interesting, though, is how Pew broke up their sample by ideologies and demographics. Bring on the false dichotomies!Political ideology: Self-described liberals prefer Starbucks 46 to 33 percent, while conservatives prefer McDonald’s 50 to 28 percent. Moderates fell in the middle.Gender: Men prefer McDonald’s 16 percent more than Starbucks. Women like both equally.Income: People with annual incomes of $75,000 and above are likely to choose Starbucks, while those with incomes below $30,000 go with the Golden Arches.Education: People with college degrees prefer Starbucks 47 to 32 percent. Those with a high school degree or less prefer McDonald’s 50 to 26 percent.Region: Westerners prefer Starbucks by a wide margin. But folks in the East, the South and the Midwest all like McDonald’s more.Religion: Protestants and Catholics prefer McDonald’s. The religiously unaffiliated are predominantly Starbucks patrons.
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Advertising - The Body as Billboard - Your Ad Here - NYTimes.com
The Body as Billboard: Your Ad Here
By ANDREW ADAM NEWMAN
Published: February 17, 2009
TERRY GARDNER, a legal secretary in California, returned home from work recently to find two police officers waiting. They said her brother had told them he thought she might be having a breakdown because she had shaved her head.
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Edward Carreon for Air New Zealand
Rita Thomas and Rob Powers were among 30 people who agreed to advertise Air New Zealand on their bald heads last November. They were paid in cash or free tickets to New Zealand.
Ms. Gardner, 50, said in a telephone interview that she had told the officers that she was fine and had shaved her head for an advertising campaign by Air New Zealand, which had hired her to display a temporary tattoo. She turned around and showed them the message, written in henna on the back of her head: “Need A Change? Head Down to New Zealand. www.airnewzealand.com.”
By ANDREW ADAM NEWMAN
Published: February 17, 2009
TERRY GARDNER, a legal secretary in California, returned home from work recently to find two police officers waiting. They said her brother had told them he thought she might be having a breakdown because she had shaved her head.
Skip to next paragraph
Enlarge This Image
Edward Carreon for Air New Zealand
Rita Thomas and Rob Powers were among 30 people who agreed to advertise Air New Zealand on their bald heads last November. They were paid in cash or free tickets to New Zealand.
Ms. Gardner, 50, said in a telephone interview that she had told the officers that she was fine and had shaved her head for an advertising campaign by Air New Zealand, which had hired her to display a temporary tattoo. She turned around and showed them the message, written in henna on the back of her head: “Need A Change? Head Down to New Zealand. www.airnewzealand.com.”
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